Botafogo v Vitoria 
1X2 · BotafogoModel behind market recent
Market
1.75
price
57.1%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.86
fair price
53.8%
fair prob
Our model
2.11
model fair price
47.4%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 54%model 47%
Model divergence -6.4 pts
Edge vs fair -5.8%
7 books priced
Model · 1X2
Botafogo
47%
Draw
29%
Vitoria
23%
market fair (devig · consensus): 54% / 25% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.494 — 0.983
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Botafogo 47% against the market’s fair 54% — a -6.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.494–0.983 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 27.8°C · rain 0 mm · wind 4.6 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Botafogo 31% · Vitoria 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 47.4% | 1.86 | 1.75 | -5.8% |
| Draw | 29.3% | 3.98 | 3.75 | -5.9% |
| Vitoria | 23.3% | 4.74 | 4.45 | -6.1% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Botafogo | Draw | Vitoria |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| 888sport | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.33 |
| LeoVegas | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.45 |
| Paddy Power | 1.73 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.70 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Smarkets | 1.62 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Botafogo — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BotafogoFair line (devig) — Botafogo
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
BotafogoNo archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
VitoriaLWLLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 1.58
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 42% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Santos | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | H v Internacional | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Bragantino | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | A v CD Nacional | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Casa Pia AC | 0-1 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v Bahia
Frequently asked questions
When do Botafogo play Vitoria?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Botafogo v Vitoria?
The statistical model prices Botafogo at 47%, the draw at 29% and Vitoria at 23%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Botafogo v Vitoria?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.86 / 3.98 / 4.74 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.