Burnley v Notts County
EFL1X2 · BurnleyModel behind market recent
Market
1.55
price
64.5%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.60
fair price
62.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 62%model 47%
Model divergence -15.9 pts
Edge vs fair -3.3%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Burnley
47%
Draw
28%
Notts County
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 62% / 22% / 16%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Burnley 47% against the market’s fair 62% — a -15.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Burnley 31% · Notts County 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 46.5% | 1.60 | 1.55 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 4.65 | 4.50 | -3.2% |
| Notts County | 25.2% | 6.17 | 6.00 | -2.8% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.65 · Under: 2.25 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Burnley | Draw | Notts County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.49 | 3.95 | 6.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.40 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.47 | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| Grosvenor | 1.55 | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.55 | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.55 | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| Casumo | 1.55 | 3.70 | 5.20 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| 888sport | 1.50 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.48 | 4.35 | 5.75 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.49 / 4.33 / 5.75 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Burnley — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — BurnleyFair line (devig) — Burnley
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
BurnleyDLDLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.83 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 8%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v Wolverhampton Wanderers FC | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-18 | A v Arsenal FC | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Aston Villa FC | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-01 | A v Leeds United FC | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-04-22 | H v Manchester City FC | 0-1 | L |
Notts County
L
Goals for/against (last 12): 0 / 2
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 0% · Both teams scored: 0% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Viborg | 0-2 | L |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Burnley play Notts County?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 15:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Burnley v Notts County?
The statistical model prices Burnley at 47%, the draw at 28% and Notts County at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Burnley v Notts County?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.60 / 4.65 / 6.17 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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