Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC
MLS1X2 · Charlotte FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.67
price
59.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.77
fair price
56.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.02
model fair price
49.6%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 50%
Model divergence -6.9 pts
Edge vs fair -5.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Charlotte FC
50%
Draw
26%
Atlanta United FC
24%
market fair (devig · consensus): 56% / 24% / 20%
Expected goals (λ)
1.78 — 1.196
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Charlotte FC 50% against the market’s fair 56% — a -6.9 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.78–1.196 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Charlotte FC 36% · Atlanta United FC 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte FC | 49.6% | 1.77 | 1.67 | -5.6% |
| Draw | 26.2% | 4.24 | 4.00 | -5.6% |
| Atlanta United FC | 24.3% | 5.03 | 4.75 | -5.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Charlotte FC | Draw | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| LeoVegas | 1.60 | 3.85 | 4.40 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.60 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| Bet Victor | 1.61 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.61 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Smarkets | 1.56 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.61 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Coral | 1.61 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Charlotte FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Charlotte FCFair line (devig) — Charlotte FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Charlotte FCWWLDLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.67 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | H v New England Revolution | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Toronto FC | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v New York City | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v FC Cincinnati | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | A v New England Revolution | 0-1 | L |
Atlanta United FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Charlotte FC play Atlanta United FC?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:15 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC?
The statistical model prices Charlotte FC at 50%, the draw at 26% and Atlanta United FC at 24%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.77 / 4.24 / 5.03 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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