Deportes Concepción v O'Higgins
PDC1X2 · Deportes ConcepciónModel behind market recent
Market
2.88
price
34.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
3.19
fair price
31.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 31%model 45%
Model divergence +13.7 pts
Edge vs fair -9.9%
4 books priced
Model · 1X2
Deportes Concepción
45%
Draw
29%
O'Higgins
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 31% / 28% / 41%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Deportes Concepción 45% against the market’s fair 31% — a +13.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Deportes Concepción 29% · O'Higgins 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Concepción | 45.0% | 3.19 | 2.88 | -9.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | 3.61 | 3.25 | -10% |
| O'Higgins | 26.1% | 2.44 | 2.20 | -9.8% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Deportes Concepción | Draw | O'Higgins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 1.04 | 1.02 | 1.04 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Paddy Power | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Deportes Concepción — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Deportes ConcepciónFair line (devig) — Deportes Concepción
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Deportes Concepción
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
O'Higgins
WLWDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.6 / 1.4
Over 2.5 goals: 20% · Both teams scored: 20% · Clean sheets: 60%
Over 2.5 goals: 20% · Both teams scored: 20% · Clean sheets: 60%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | H v Nublense | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-03-12 | A v CD Tolima | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-03-05 | H v CD Tolima | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-02-25 | A v EC Bahia | 5-5 | D |
| 2026-02-18 | H v EC Bahia | 1-0 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Chile fixtures
Union La Calera v Everton de Viña del MarColo Colo v Deportes LimacheCoquimbo Unido v Universidad de ConcepciónHuachipato v CobresalUniversidad Católica (CHI) v La SerenaÑublense v Palestino
Frequently asked questions
When do Deportes Concepción play O'Higgins?
Kick-off is Mon 27 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Deportes Concepción v O'Higgins?
The statistical model prices Deportes Concepción at 45%, the draw at 29% and O'Higgins at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Deportes Concepción v O'Higgins?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.19 / 3.61 / 2.44 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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