Deportes Concepción v O'Higgins PREDICTION
PDC Mon 27 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 12d1X2 · Deportes ConcepciónModel behind market recent
Market
2.88
price
34.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
3.19
fair price
31.3%
fair prob
Our model
2.22
model fair price
45.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 31%model 45%
Model divergence +13.7 pts
Edge vs fair -9.9%
4 books priced
Model · 1X2
Deportes Concepción
45%
Draw
29%
O'Higgins
26%
market fair (devig · consensus): 31% / 28% / 41%
Expected goals (λ)
1.508 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Deportes Concepción 45% against the market’s fair 31% — a +13.7 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.508–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Deportes Concepción 29% · O'Higgins 16% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Primera División - Chile fixtures
Union La Calera v Everton de Viña del MarColo Colo v Deportes LimacheCoquimbo Unido v Universidad de ConcepciónHuachipato v CobresalUniversidad Católica (CHI) v La SerenaÑublense v Palestino
Frequently asked questions
When do Deportes Concepción play O'Higgins?
Kick-off is Mon 27 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Primera División - Chile.
What does the model expect for Deportes Concepción v O'Higgins?
The statistical model prices Deportes Concepción at 45%, the draw at 29% and O'Higgins at 26%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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