Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC
1X2 · Independiente Santa FeModel behind market recent
Market
1.41
price
70.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.53
fair price
65.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 66%model 47%
Model divergence -19 pts
Edge vs fair -7.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Independiente Santa Fe
47%
Draw
28%
Caracas FC
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 66% / 23% / 12%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Independiente Santa Fe 47% against the market’s fair 66% — a -19 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Independiente Santa Fe 31% · Caracas FC 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe | 46.5% | 1.53 | 1.41 | -7.6% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 4.37 | 4.10 | -6.1% |
| Caracas FC | 25.2% | 8.62 | 9.00 | +4.4% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.15 · Under: 1.67 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Independiente Santa Fe | Draw | Caracas FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 4.00 | 8.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36 | 3.60 | 7.00 |
| Coral | 1.36 | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.10 | 7.30 |
| Smarkets | 1.34 | 3.70 | 6.60 |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.00 | 8.50 |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 8.50 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.36 | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| Casumo | 1.41 | 4.10 | 9.00 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.36 | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.40 | 4.00 | 8.50 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.42 / 4.06 / 7.98 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Independiente Santa Fe — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Independiente Santa FeFair line (devig) — Independiente Santa Fe
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Independiente Santa Fe
WWDLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 13%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 13%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | A v CA Peñarol | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-20 | H v CA Platense | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-07 | H v SC Corinthians Paulista | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-04-29 | A v CA Platense | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-04-16 | A v SC Corinthians Paulista | 0-2 | L |
Caracas FC
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Copa Sudamericana fixtures
Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BAUCV FC v SantosIndependiente Medellín v Vasco da GamaSporting Cristal v Bragantino-SPLanus v Club CiencianoClub Bolívar v Grêmio
Frequently asked questions
When do Independiente Santa Fe play Caracas FC?
Kick-off is Fri 24 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC?
The statistical model prices Independiente Santa Fe at 47%, the draw at 28% and Caracas FC at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.53 / 4.37 / 8.62 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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