Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC PREDICTION
CS Fri 24 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 9d
1X2 · Independiente Santa FeModel behind market recent
Market
1.41
price
70.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.53
fair price
65.5%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 66%model 47%
Model divergence -19 pts
Edge vs fair -7.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Independiente Santa Fe
47%
Draw
28%
Caracas FC
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 66% / 23% / 12%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Independiente Santa Fe 47% against the market’s fair 66% — a -19 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Independiente Santa Fe 31% · Caracas FC 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Copa Sudamericana fixtures
Nacional de Montevideo v CA Tigre BAUCV FC v SantosIndependiente Medellín v Vasco da GamaSporting Cristal v Bragantino-SPLanus v Club CiencianoClub Bolívar v Grêmio
Frequently asked questions
When do Independiente Santa Fe play Caracas FC?
Kick-off is Fri 24 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Copa Sudamericana.
What does the model expect for Independiente Santa Fe v Caracas FC?
The statistical model prices Independiente Santa Fe at 47%, the draw at 28% and Caracas FC at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Sign in to open match intelligence
Model probabilities, fair odds, price movement and the grounded brief for every fixture — free with an account. One email, no card.
Create a free account See the open track recordThe track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.