Internacional v Cruzeiro
1X2 · InternacionalModel behind market recent
Market
2.28
price
43.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.36
fair price
42.4%
fair prob
Our model
2.16
model fair price
46.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 42%model 46%
Model divergence +3.8 pts
Edge vs fair -3.3%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Internacional
46%
Draw
31%
Cruzeiro
23%
market fair (devig · sharp): 42% / 29% / 29%
Expected goals (λ)
1.372 — 0.899
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Internacional 46% against the market’s fair 42% — a +3.8 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.372–0.899 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 19.4°C · rain 0.8 mm · wind 17.6 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Internacional 28% · Cruzeiro 12% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 46.2% | 2.36 | 2.28 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 30.9% | 3.46 | 3.40 | -1.7% |
| Cruzeiro | 23.0% | 3.48 | 3.35 | -3.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.08 · Under: 1.73 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Internacional | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coral | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Sky Bet | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Smarkets | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.24 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Grosvenor | 2.28 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| LeoVegas | 2.18 | 3.20 | 3.15 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.05 |
| Casumo | 2.28 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 2.25 / 3.30 / 3.33 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Internacional — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — InternacionalFair line (devig) — Internacional
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Internacional
LLWDWD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | A v Bragantino | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-23 | A v Vitoria | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Vasco | 4-1 | W |
| 2026-05-09 | A v Coritiba | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-03 | H v Fluminense | 2-0 | W |
Cruzeiro
DWWWDD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 83% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | H v Fluminense | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-29 | H v Barcelona SC | 4-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Chapecoense AF | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Chapecoense-SC | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-20 | A v CA Boca Juniors | 1-1 | D |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-23 | Cruzeiro v Internacional | 2-1 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-06 | Internacional v Cruzeiro | 3-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-08-28 | Cruzeiro v Internacional | 0-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2024-08-25 | Internacional v Cruzeiro | 1-0 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-11-05 | Cruzeiro v Internacional | 1-2 | Brazil Serie A |
| 2023-07-02 | Internacional v Cruzeiro | 0-0 | Brazil Serie A |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v Bahia
Frequently asked questions
When do Internacional play Cruzeiro?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Internacional v Cruzeiro?
The statistical model prices Internacional at 46%, the draw at 31% and Cruzeiro at 23%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Internacional v Cruzeiro?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.36 / 3.46 / 3.48 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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