Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake 
MLS1X2 · Los Angeles FCModel behind market recent
Market
1.67
price
59.9%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · consensus
1.79
fair price
55.9%
fair prob
Our model
1.58
model fair price
63.2%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 56%model 63%
Model divergence +7.3 pts
Edge vs fair -6.6%
11 books priced
Model · 1X2
Los Angeles FC
63%
Draw
21%
Real Salt Lake
15%
market fair (devig · consensus): 56% / 23% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
2.267 — 1.054
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 2-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Los Angeles FC 63% against the market’s fair 56% — a +7.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.267–1.054 (most likely 2-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Los Angeles FC 49% · Real Salt Lake 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (consensus, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 63.2% | 1.79 | 1.67 | -6.6% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 4.29 | 4.00 | -6.8% |
| Real Salt Lake | 15.3% | 4.83 | 4.50 | -6.8% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Los Angeles FC | Draw | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Smarkets | 1.59 | 3.60 | 3.90 |
| Bet Victor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Coral | 1.61 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.61 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
No sharp reference held for this fixture — fair odds fall back to devigged consensus, labelled.
Odds movement
1X2 · Los Angeles FC — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Los Angeles FCFair line (devig) — Los Angeles FC
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Los Angeles FC
WLLLDW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.5 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
Over 2.5 goals: 58% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 50%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | H v Seattle Sounders | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-18 | A v Nashville SC | 2-3 | L |
| 2026-05-14 | A v St. Louis City | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-11 | H v Houston Dynamo | 1-4 | L |
| 2026-05-03 | A v San Diego FC | 2-2 | D |
Real Salt LakeDWWLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 1.42
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 75% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | A v Minnesota United | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-17 | H v Colorado Rapids | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-14 | H v Houston Dynamo | 3-0 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v FC Dallas | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-02 | H v Portland Timbers | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-22 | Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake | 4-1 | USA MLS |
| 2025-09-18 | Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC | 1-4 | USA MLS |
| 2024-07-18 | Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake | 1-1 | USA MLS |
| 2024-03-02 | Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC | 3-0 | USA MLS |
| 2023-10-02 | Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake | 0-1 | USA MLS |
| 2023-05-14 | Real Salt Lake v Los Angeles FC | 0-3 | USA MLS |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More MLS fixtures
CF Montreal v Toronto FCChicago Fire v Vancouver Whitecaps FCSt. Louis City SC v Sporting Kansas CitySeattle Sounders FC v Portland TimbersNashville SC v Atlanta United FCLA Galaxy v Los Angeles FC
Frequently asked questions
When do Los Angeles FC play Real Salt Lake?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 03:30 UK time in the MLS.
What does the model expect for Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake?
The statistical model prices Los Angeles FC at 63%, the draw at 21% and Real Salt Lake at 15%, with 2-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Los Angeles FC v Real Salt Lake?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.79 / 4.29 / 4.83 (consensus, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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