Paris Saint Germain v Lyon — Ligue 1 - France prediction, odds and analysis
L1At a glance
Model edge
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Fair price
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Model prob
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Reliability
—
qualification
Paris Saint Germain2–0Lyon
Full timeParis Saint Germain1.38Betfair
Draw6.00Betfair
Lyon8.80Betfair
Best captured price per outcome · 20 bookmakers · prices observed 15 h ago
RESEARCH ONLY
Model and market read this fixture broadly the same way.
Risk: The process score is member content — any single result stays uncertain.
The exact market, selection, probabilities and price thresholds are member content.
Venue: Parc des Princes, ParisReferee: Jerome Brisard
Jérôme Brisard — referee history (14 matches counted):
4.29 yellows/game · 0.21 reds/game · 0.07 pens/game · home win 71%
— from the engine's stored match events, not a third-party rating.
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Pricing board
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Recorded price movement
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Match flow
Built from the 14 goals,
cards and substitutions held for this fixture.
Above the line is Paris Saint Germain. Per-minute shot and possession data is not held, so this is the flow of
recorded events rather than a shot-pressure model.
Timeline and match statistics
Timeline · FT · HT 0–0
Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 8
- 31' Yellow Card — Foul Vitinha
- 51' Yellow Card — Foul Maghnes Akliouche
- 57' Substitution 1 João Neves (Mika Godts)
- 65' Substitution 2 Warren Zaire-Emery (Lucas Hernández)
- 65' Substitution 3 Ferrán Torres (Senny Mayulu)
- 72' Normal Goal Senny Mayulu (Mika Godts)
- 74' Yellow Card — Dissent Ernest Nuamah
- 76' Substitution 1 Khalis Merah (Noah Teye Nartey)
- 76' Substitution 2 Corentin Tolisso (Ruben Kluivert)
- 81' Substitution 4 Maghnes Akliouche (Quentin Ndjantou)
- 81' Substitution 5 Désiré Doue (Lucas Beraldo)
- 81' Substitution 3 Julien Duranville (Kail Boudache)
- 84' Normal Goal Mika Godts (Quentin Ndjantou)
- 90+1' Substitution 4 Tyler Morton (Remi Himbert)
Paris Saint Germain above the axis, Lyon below — as recorded by the match feed, never inferred.
Post-match statistics
Paris Saint GermainLyon
68%
Possession
32%
17
Shots
8
10
On target
5
0.96
xG
0.69
7
Corners
4
8
Fouls
14
2
Yellow cards
1
Counted post-match from the stored statistics feed — not live, never estimated; absent stats stay absent.
Form and league position
WWWWWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 3 / 0.83 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | vs Lyon (H) | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-10-20 | vs Barcelona (H) | 4-2 | W |
| 2026-10-17 | at Strasbourg (A) | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-10-17 | at RC Strasbourg Alsace (A) | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-10-14 | at Manchester City (A) | 4-2 | W |
LLLWWW
| Goals for / against (last 12) | 2.08 / 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 83% |
| Both teams scored | 42% |
| Clean sheets | 33% |
Recent results
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | at Paris Saint Germain (A) | 0-2 | L |
| 2026-10-22 | at 1899 Hoffenheim (A) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-10-22 | at TSG Hoffenheim (A) | 0-3 | L |
| 2026-10-18 | vs Nice (H) | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-10-18 | vs OGC Nice (H) | 2-1 | W |
League standings 2026–27
| Team | Pos | Pts | P | GD | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain | 2 | 14 | 7 | +5 | WWWWL |
| Lyon | 1 | 14 | 7 | +8 | WLWDW |
Paris Saint Germain: level on points with 1st · 12 pts above 18th
Lyon: level on points with 1st · 12 pts above 18th
From the engine's stored standings snapshot · API-Football · updated 2026-10-25.
Partial: Not a verified complete table. expected table size not established for this competition — completeness unverified.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
Previous meetings
Recent meetings
Paris Saint Germain 5 wins0 drawsLyon 1avg 4.5 goalsBTTS 100%Over 2.5 in 100%
small sample — 6 meetings held; context, not a pattern claim
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Paris Saint-Germain FC v Olympique Lyonnais | 1-2 | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Olympique Lyonnais v Paris Saint-Germain FC | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-23 | Lyon v Paris SG | 2-3 | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-15 | Paris SG v Lyon | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Paris Saint-Germain FC v Olympique Lyonnais | 4-1 | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-21 | Paris SG v Lyon | 4-1 | season-2324 |
Prior meetings held in the engine's results archive, newest first. The archive is what the model trains on, so a meeting missing here was never ingested — it is not a claim the game was not played.
Starting elevens
Team sheets were not captured for this fixture before kickoff —
the engine spends lineup calls only close to kick-off, and this game fell outside its capture window.
For finished games the post-match sweep stores the confirmed XI when the provider serves it.
Nothing here is ever predicted.
Injuries and absences
Paris Saint Germainsnapshot 2026-10-25
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| N. Mendes | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| O. Dembele | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| A. Longoni | Questionable | Injury |
| K. Kvaratskhelia | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Marquinhos | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| N. Mendes | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| O. Dembele | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
| A. Longoni | Missing Fixture | Injury |
| K. Kvaratskhelia | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| Marquinhos | Missing Fixture | Thigh Injury |
Lyonsnapshot 2026-10-25
| Player | Status | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| A. Hamdani | Questionable | Inactive |
| M. Ouedraogo | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| N. Tagliafico | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| L. Openda | Missing Fixture | Leg Injury |
| P. Sulc | Questionable | Knee Injury |
| A. Hamdani | Missing Fixture | Inactive |
| S. Kango | Questionable | Injury |
| K. Nakamura | Missing Fixture | Red Card |
| M. Ouedraogo | Missing Fixture | Knee Injury |
| N. Tagliafico | Missing Fixture | Muscle Injury |
| L. Openda | Missing Fixture | Leg Injury |
| P. Sulc | Questionable | Knee Injury |
Each side's list carries its OWN capture date. A confirmed starting XI overrides an older snapshot; player names are shown as returned, impact is NOT scored (that would be invention).
Signal ledger
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Grounded team-news brief
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Module freshness: odds snapshot 26 Oct, 08:07 · model run 12 Oct, 07:05 · injury snapshot 2026-10-25
More about this fixture other views, the rest of the competition, and the common questions
More Ligue 1 - France fixtures
Le Havre v Paris Saint GermainLille v RC LensNice v RennesTroyes v Le Mans FCLyon v AngersLorient v Brest
Frequently asked questions
When do Paris Saint Germain play Lyon?
Kick-off is Mon 26 Oct, 19:30 UK time in the Ligue 1 - France.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 26 October at 08:07 UK time. · engine slate assembled 15 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.
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See the open track record
· model probability beside the market fair line, per fixture
· model EV, model edge and price edge — separately labelled
· grounded team-news briefs and the match intelligence tabs
· watchlist, alerts and the AI analyst
Everything above is real engine output — nothing is mocked or illustrative. Scores come from the governed in-play scan and bookmaker prices from the scheduled market snapshot, each stamped with when it was observed. The track record, methodology and legal pages stay open to everyone — that's the transparency promise.