Queens Park Rangers v Millwall
EFL1X2 · Queens Park RangersModel behind market recent
Market
3.10
price
32.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
3.21
fair price
31.2%
fair prob
Our model
2.15
model fair price
46.5%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 31%model 47%
Model divergence +15.3 pts
Edge vs fair -3.3%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Queens Park Rangers
47%
Draw
28%
Millwall
25%
market fair (devig · sharp): 31% / 29% / 40%
Expected goals (λ)
1.566 — 1.1
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Queens Park Rangers 47% against the market’s fair 31% — a +15.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.566–1.1 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Queens Park Rangers 31% · Millwall 15% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park Rangers | 46.5% | 3.21 | 3.10 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% | 3.50 | 3.45 | -1.3% |
| Millwall | 25.2% | 2.48 | 2.32 | -6.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.91 · Under: 1.91 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Queens Park Rangers | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 2.96 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
| Sky Bet | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| BoyleSports | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| LeoVegas | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Grosvenor | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| Casumo | 2.75 | 3.45 | 2.17 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| 888sport | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 3.01 / 3.28 / 2.33 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Queens Park Rangers — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Queens Park RangersFair line (devig) — Queens Park Rangers
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Queens Park RangersDLWLLD
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.17 / 2.17
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 67% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v First Vienna | 0-0 | D |
| 2015-05-24 | A v Leicester | 1-5 | L |
| 2015-05-16 | H v Newcastle | 2-1 | W |
| 2015-05-10 | A v Man City | 0-6 | L |
| 2015-05-02 | A v Liverpool | 1-2 | L |
Millwall
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More EFL Cup fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Queens Park Rangers play Millwall?
Kick-off is Sat 8 Aug, 14:00 UK time in the EFL Cup.
What does the model expect for Queens Park Rangers v Millwall?
The statistical model prices Queens Park Rangers at 47%, the draw at 28% and Millwall at 25%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Queens Park Rangers v Millwall?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 3.21 / 3.50 / 2.48 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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