Sport Recife v Operario PR
1X2 · Sport RecifeModel behind market recent
Market
1.91
price
52.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.01
fair price
49.8%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 50%model 68%
Model divergence +18 pts
Edge vs fair -4.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Sport Recife
68%
Draw
25%
Operario PR
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 50% / 29% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Sport Recife 68% against the market’s fair 50% — a +18 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 23.7°C · rain 1.9 mm · wind 19.3 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sport Recife 44% · Operario PR 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife | 67.8% | 2.01 | 1.91 | -4.9% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 3.46 | 3.45 | -0.3% |
| Operario PR | 7.3% | 4.69 | 4.20 | -10.5% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 2.20 · Under: 1.81 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Sport Recife | Draw | Operario PR |
|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 1.80 | 3.20 | 3.65 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.80 | 3.20 | 3.65 |
| Casumo | 1.89 | 3.45 | 3.90 |
| Grosvenor | 1.83 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.83 | 3.25 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.85 | 3.25 | 4.05 |
| Paddy Power | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.85 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.83 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.83 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| 888sport | 1.91 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.90 / 3.27 / 4.43 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Sport Recife — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Sport RecifeFair line (devig) — Sport Recife
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Sport Recife
LLLLLL
Goals for/against (last 12): 0.67 / 2.83
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 67% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | H v Gremio | 0-4 | L |
| 2025-12-03 | A v Bahia | 0-2 | L |
| 2025-11-29 | A v Santos | 0-3 | L |
| 2025-11-23 | H v Vitoria | 1-3 | L |
| 2025-11-18 | A v Botafogo RJ | 2-3 | L |
Operario PR
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série B fixtures
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Frequently asked questions
When do Sport Recife play Operario PR?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Sport Recife v Operario PR?
The statistical model prices Sport Recife at 68%, the draw at 25% and Operario PR at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Sport Recife v Operario PR?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 2.01 / 3.46 / 4.69 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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