Sport Recife v Operario PR PREDICTION
BSB Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK · in 4d
1X2 · Sport RecifeModel behind market recent
Market
1.91
price
52.4%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
2.01
fair price
49.8%
fair prob
Our model
1.47
model fair price
67.8%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 50%model 68%
Model divergence +18 pts
Edge vs fair -4.9%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Sport Recife
68%
Draw
25%
Operario PR
7%
market fair (devig · sharp): 50% / 29% / 21%
Expected goals (λ)
1.664 — 0.4
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Sport Recife 68% against the market’s fair 50% — a +18 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.664–0.4 (most likely 1-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 23.7°C · rain 1.9 mm · wind 19.3 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Sport Recife 44% · Operario PR 2% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
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Frequently asked questions
When do Sport Recife play Operario PR?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 20:00 UK time in the Brazil Série B.
What does the model expect for Sport Recife v Operario PR?
The statistical model prices Sport Recife at 68%, the draw at 25% and Operario PR at 7%, with 1-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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