Viking FK v Sandefjord
EN1X2 · Viking FKModel behind market recent
Market
1.32
price
75.8%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.36
fair price
73.7%
fair prob
Our model
1.53
model fair price
65.3%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 74%model 65%
Model divergence -8.4 pts
Edge vs fair -2.7%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Viking FK
65%
Draw
20%
Sandefjord
15%
market fair (devig · sharp): 74% / 15% / 11%
Expected goals (λ)
2.416 — 1.086
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 2-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Viking FK 65% against the market’s fair 74% — a -8.4 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.416–1.086 (most likely 2-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Viking FK 52% · Sandefjord 11% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viking FK | 65.3% | 1.36 | 1.32 | -2.7% |
| Draw | 20.2% | 6.49 | 6.00 | -7.6% |
| Sandefjord | 14.6% | 9.17 | 9.40 | +2.5% |
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Viking FK | Draw | Sandefjord |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfred (UK) | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Betway | 1.25 | 6.00 | 7.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.28 | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.30 | 5.75 | 8.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
| Sky Bet | 1.25 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.50 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| Coral | 1.28 | 5.25 | 7.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.28 | 5.25 | 7.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.28 / 6.13 / 8.65 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Viking FK — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — Viking FKFair line (devig) — Viking FK
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Viking FK
LWWWWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 2.83 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 75% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Sarpsborg 08 FF | 0-1 | L |
| 2026-05-24 | A v Kristiansund | 2-1 | W |
| 2026-05-16 | H v Start | 6-3 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | A v KFUM Oslo | 2-0 | W |
| 2026-05-01 | H v Rosenborg | 3-0 | W |
Sandefjord
DLDLWW
Goals for/against (last 12): 1 / 1.25
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 50% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | H v Ham-Kam | 2-2 | D |
| 2026-05-30 | A v Molde | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-25 | H v Fredrikstad | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-16 | A v Lillestrom | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Kristiansund | 2-0 | W |
Recent meetings
| Date | Match | Score | League |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-10 | Sandefjord v Viking | 1-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2025-05-16 | Viking v Sandefjord | 3-1 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2024-11-02 | Viking v Sandefjord | 3-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2024-05-20 | Sandefjord v Viking | 0-3 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2023-09-24 | Viking v Sandefjord | 4-3 | Norway Eliteserien |
| 2023-05-13 | Sandefjord v Viking | 1-2 | Norway Eliteserien |
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Eliteserien - Norway fixtures
Vålerenga v AalesundBodø/Glimt v Fredrikstad FKHamKam v TromsoIK Start v RosenborgLillestrom v KFUMKristiansund BK v Sarpsborg FK
Frequently asked questions
When do Viking FK play Sandefjord?
Kick-off is Sat 18 Jul, 17:00 UK time in the Eliteserien - Norway.
What does the model expect for Viking FK v Sandefjord?
The statistical model prices Viking FK at 65%, the draw at 20% and Sandefjord at 15%, with 2-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Viking FK v Sandefjord?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.36 / 6.49 / 9.17 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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