AM

AC Milan

Serie A - Italy·5 of 20 in the table·15 points·San Siro

Next match AC Milan v Bologna Wed 28 Oct, 17:30

Fixtures, model probabilities, market view and graded history for AC Milan — everything from the live engine snapshot and the public ledger.

3 Upcoming8 Results held

Model Strength

75.7

Strong

Avg. Model Edge

Not enough data

0 of this club's fixtures carry both a model price and a market price

Market Efficiency

97.4%

Very Efficient

ROI · published

Not enough data

2 settled calls on this club are in the ledger; 3 are needed

Model Rank

7th

of 20 ranked

Fixtures Analysed

8

Held

Next fixtures

3 priced

Wed 28 Oct17:30 Bologna H — 1.65Betfair Exchange — Sat 31 Oct19:45 Inter Milan H — 3.25Unibet — Thu 5 Nov17:45 Ferencváros TC H — 1.33Smarkets —

Form

last 6

WWDWDD 12 pts from 6

A Udinese 2–0 +1.5

H Atalanta 3–2 +1.0

A Sassuolo 1–1 -0.7

H Lecce 3–0 +0.6

A Lazio 2–2 -0.2

A Juventus 1–1 +0.1

The last column is points taken minus the model's expected points for that fixture. A fixture the model did not price shows no comparison rather than a zero.

Model performance

points vs expected

Points taken (8 matches) Model expected (8 priced) Ahead Behind

+7.2 points against the model's expectation over the 8 fixtures it priced

Expected points is 3 × P(win) + 1 × P(draw) under the model's own frozen probabilities for each fixture. No fitting, no free parameters — the gap is what the club took against what the model priced.

Strengths & weaknesses

ranked in competition

Strengths

Shots faced 9.9 #2 of 20

Goals conceded 0.88 #3 of 20

Expected goals for 2.02 #3 of 20

Possession 59.9% #3 of 20

Attack

per game, with rank

Goals scored 2 #5 of 20

Expected goals 2.02 #3 of 20

Shots 13.1 #13 of 20

On target 5 #11 of 20

Defence

per game, with rank

Goals conceded 0.88 #3 of 20

Expected against 1.11 #4 of 20

Shots faced 9.9 #2 of 20

Clean sheets 3 #6 of 20

Best model edges

on this club

No priced edge on this club

an edge needs both a model probability and a market price on the same fixture, and no fixture for this club on the board carries both

How the goals arrive

from the event feed

25%

Scored before half time

of 16 goals

0%

Scored from 75 minutes

of 16 goals

13%

From the penalty spot

of 16 goals

50%

Conceded from 75 minutes

of 8 conceded

From the provider's own goal events across 8 stored fixtures (24 events held). The feed distinguishes a penalty and an own goal; it does not label a set piece, and neither does this panel.

Model vs market

this club

Not enough priced fixtures

the model priced 0 fixture(s) here

SA Serie A - Italy 3 fixtures on the snapshot · full table

#5

Position

15

Points from 7 played

+7

Goal difference

#	Team	Pl	GD	Pts
3	AS Roma	8	13	18
4	Como	8	7	17
5	AC Milan	7	7	15
6	Frosinone	7	4	13
7	Torino	8	2	13

AC Milan and its immediate neighbours in the stored table.

Upcoming fixtures

1. Wed 28 Oct17:30in 39h 01m
   AC Milan Bologna

   SA

   Regular Season - 9
   not modelled
   model building
   —
2. Sat 31 Oct19:45in 5d
   AC Milan Inter Milan

   SA

   Regular Season - 10
   not modelled
   model building
   —
3. Thu 5 Nov17:45in 10d
   AC Milan Ferencváros TC

   UEL

   League Stage - 4
   not modelled
   model building
   —

Transfers (last 10 recorded)

League position (stored standings)

Graded calls — from the public ledger

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