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Today's intelligence — model vs market on every fixture in the snapshot. Research, not instructions.
📅 Tuesday 14 July
Filtered: showing only Brazil Série A (12 fixtures)
· clear filter
Brazil Série AThu 23 Jul, 01:30
C Chapecoense v Flamengo F
+9.4%
edge vs fair
49%
model probability
1X2 — Chapecoense · best 7.50
strong value
Brazil Série AFri 17 Jul, 23:30
B Bahia v Chapecoense C
+9%
edge vs fair
23%
model probability
1X2 — Chapecoense · best 7.50
strong value
Brazil Série AThu 23 Jul, 23:30
C Corinthians v Remo R
+6.9%
edge vs fair
12%
model probability
1X2 — Remo · best 7.00
strong value
Match intelligence
Chapecoense v Flamengo
Brazil Série A · Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK
Model lean — 1X2
Chapecoense
49%
model probability — uncertainty included by design
6.85
fair odds
7.50
best price
+9.5%
edge vs fair
Model probabilities
Market (fair, devigged · sharp)
Engine score — process gate
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
λ (exp. goals): 1.546 — 0.978
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 34 pts
Most likely score: 1-1
Model–market gap: 34 pts
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 48.9% | 6.85 | 7.50 | +9.5% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 4.55 | 4.40 | -3.2% |
| Flamengo | 22.4% | 1.58 | 1.50 | -4.9% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.77 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Sharp reference (raw): 6.52 / 4.32 / 1.50 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Chapecoense
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Flamengo
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Benfica | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No signals recorded on this fixture yet — the critic passes run on near-flag fixtures each morning and afternoon.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
Engine score is a 0–100 process gate, not a certainty claim —
it ranks independent agreement (market shape, expected value, model, form). Channel selections appear as
FLAGGED; everything else is shown so you can judge what we didn't flag too.
Next up (12 of 12 — all matches →)
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model lean | Fair odds (1X2) | Best price (1X2) | Best edge | Engine score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo v Santos
Brazil Série A |
Thu 16 Jul, 23:30 | Botafogo 49% | 2.14 / 3.82 / 3.70
sharp, devigged |
2.06 / 3.65 / 3.95 | +6.8% Santos |
— | |
| Vitoria v Vasco da Gama
Brazil Série A |
Thu 16 Jul, 23:30 | Vitoria 51% | 2.43 / 3.46 / 3.34
sharp, devigged |
2.40 / 3.30 / 3.30 | -1.2% Vitoria |
— | |
| Bahia v Chapecoense
Brazil Série A |
Fri 17 Jul, 23:30 | Bahia 47% | 1.51 / 5.15 / 6.90
sharp, devigged |
1.45 / 4.80 / 7.50 | +9% Chapecoense |
— | |
| Fluminense v Bragantino-SP
Brazil Série A |
Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 | Fluminense 49% | 2.05 / 3.48 / 4.44
sharp, devigged |
2.00 / 3.40 / 4.40 | -0.8% Bragantino-SP |
— | |
| Mirassol v Grêmio
Brazil Série A |
Sat 18 Jul, 00:00 | Mirassol 54% | 2.07 / 3.58 / 4.22
sharp, devigged |
2.06 / 3.40 / 4.20 | -0.3% Grêmio |
— | |
| Atletico Mineiro v Bahia
Brazil Série A |
Tue 21 Jul, 23:30 | Atletico Mineiro 60% | 2.22 / 3.50 / 3.79
sharp, devigged |
2.10 / 3.50 / 3.60 | +0.3% Draw |
— | |
| Coritiba v Palmeiras
Brazil Série A |
Wed 22 Jul, 23:30 | Palmeiras 42% | 3.85 / 3.44 / 2.23
consensus, devigged |
3.70 / 3.30 / 2.14 | -3.9% Coritiba |
63/100 |
|
| Sao Paulo v Atletico Paranaense
Brazil Série A |
Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | Sao Paulo 49% | 2.11 / 3.38 / 4.35
sharp, devigged |
2.05 / 3.40 / 4.10 | +0.8% Draw |
— | |
| Chapecoense v Flamengo
Brazil Série A |
Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | Chapecoense 49% | 6.85 / 4.55 / 1.58
sharp, devigged |
7.50 / 4.40 / 1.50 | +9.4% Chapecoense |
— | |
| Internacional v Cruzeiro
Brazil Série A |
Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 | Internacional 46% | 2.36 / 3.46 / 3.48
sharp, devigged |
2.28 / 3.40 / 3.35 | -1.7% Draw |
— | |
| Botafogo v Vitoria
Brazil Série A |
Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 | Botafogo 47% | 1.85 / 3.97 / 4.81
consensus, devigged |
1.75 / 3.75 / 4.55 | -5.5% Botafogo |
— | |
| Corinthians v Remo
Brazil Série A |
Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 | Corinthians 66% | 1.63 / 4.29 / 6.54
sharp, devigged |
1.57 / 4.00 / 7.00 | +6.9% Remo |
— |
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
Market analysis
best price vs devigged fair line
| Market | Best | Fair | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 · Chapecoense Chapecoense v Flamengo |
7.50 | 6.85 | +9.4% | strong |
| 1X2 · Chapecoense Bahia v Chapecoense |
7.50 | 6.90 | +9% | strong |
| 1X2 · Remo Corinthians v Remo |
7.00 | 6.54 | +6.9% | strong |
| 1X2 · Santos Botafogo v Santos |
3.95 | 3.70 | +6.8% | strong |
| 1X2 · Draw Sao Paulo v Atletico Paranaense |
3.40 | 3.38 | +0.8% | value |
| 1X2 · Draw Atletico Mineiro v Bahia |
3.50 | 3.50 | +0.3% | value |
| 1X2 · Grêmio Mirassol v Grêmio |
4.20 | 4.22 | -0.3% | — |
| Over 2.5 Chapecoense v Flamengo · consensus devig |
1.77 | 1.89 | -6.1% | totals |
| Under 2.5 Chapecoense v Flamengo · consensus devig |
2.00 | 2.13 | -6.1% | totals |
Odds movement
1X2 · Chapecoense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — ChapecoenseFair line (devig) — Chapecoense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Closing-line value
the number we judge ourselves on
-0.25%
avg CLV · 53 flags
8/20
last 20 beat the close
Alerts
flags posted & closings captured — sign in for alerts
Closing captured — América Mineiro to Win 2.02 → 2.18 (-7.3% CLV)
07-13 08:00
Closing captured — Both Teams to Score 1.70 → 1.65 (+3% CLV)
07-12 10:00
Closing captured — Bodø/Glimt to Win 1.57 → 1.53 (+2.6% CLV)
07-12 09:00
Closing captured — Rosenborg to Win 1.66 → 1.62 (+2.5% CLV)
07-12 08:00
Our intelligence, your context — the process behind every number
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A Dixon-Coles + ELO model rebuilt continuously from a growing archive of real results, blended with the market it is priced against.
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