Chapecoense v Flamengo
1X2 · ChapecoenseIdentified edge recent
Market
7.50
price
13.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
6.85
fair price
14.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.04
model fair price
48.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 15%model 49%
Model divergence +34.3 pts
Edge vs fair +9.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Chapecoense
49%
Draw
29%
Flamengo
22%
market fair (devig · sharp): 15% / 22% / 63%
Expected goals (λ)
1.546 — 0.978
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Chapecoense 49% against the market’s fair 15% — a +34.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.546–0.978 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 22°C · rain 0 mm · wind 22.1 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Chapecoense 32% · Flamengo 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chapecoense | 48.9% | 6.85 | 7.50 | +9.5% |
| Draw | 28.7% | 4.55 | 4.40 | -3.2% |
| Flamengo | 22.4% | 1.58 | 1.51 | -4.3% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.77 · Under: 2.00 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Chapecoense | Draw | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coral | 6.50 | 4.33 | 1.50 |
| Paddy Power | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.40 |
| Sky Bet | 5.75 | 3.75 | 1.40 |
| Ladbrokes | 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.50 |
| Smarkets | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 7.20 | 4.30 | 1.51 |
| LiveScore Bet | 7.00 | 4.25 | 1.38 |
| Grosvenor | 7.50 | 4.40 | 1.43 |
| LeoVegas | 6.10 | 4.25 | 1.45 |
| Virgin Bet | 7.00 | 4.25 | 1.38 |
| Casumo | 7.50 | 4.40 | 1.43 |
| 888sport | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 6.52 / 4.32 / 1.50 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Chapecoense — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — ChapecoenseFair line (devig) — Chapecoense
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
Chapecoense
No archive history yet for this team — form fills in as results are ingested.
Flamengo
W
Goals for/against (last 12): 2 / 1
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
Over 2.5 goals: 100% · Both teams scored: 100% · Clean sheets: 0%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | A v Benfica | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v Bahia
Frequently asked questions
When do Chapecoense play Flamengo?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Chapecoense v Flamengo?
The statistical model prices Chapecoense at 49%, the draw at 29% and Flamengo at 22%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Chapecoense v Flamengo?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 6.85 / 4.55 / 1.58 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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