Chapecoense v Flamengo PREDICTION
BSA Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK · in 8d
1X2 · ChapecoenseIdentified edge recent
Market
7.50
price
13.3%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
6.85
fair price
14.6%
fair prob
Our model
2.04
model fair price
48.9%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 15%model 49%
Model divergence +34.3 pts
Edge vs fair +9.5%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Chapecoense
49%
Draw
29%
Flamengo
22%
market fair (devig · sharp): 15% / 22% / 63%
Expected goals (λ)
1.546 — 0.978
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 1-1
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Chapecoense 49% against the market’s fair 15% — a +34.3 pt divergence, from expected goals 1.546–0.978 (most likely 1-1). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 22°C · rain 0 mm · wind 22.1 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Chapecoense 32% · Flamengo 13% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v Bahia
Frequently asked questions
When do Chapecoense play Flamengo?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 01:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Chapecoense v Flamengo?
The statistical model prices Chapecoense at 49%, the draw at 29% and Flamengo at 22%, with 1-1 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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