Corinthians v Remo
1X2 · CorinthiansModel behind market recent
Market
1.57
price
63.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.63
fair price
61.4%
fair prob
Our model
1.52
model fair price
66.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 61%model 66%
Model divergence +4.6 pts
Edge vs fair -3.6%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Corinthians
66%
Draw
22%
Remo
12%
market fair (devig · sharp): 61% / 23% / 15%
Expected goals (λ)
2.065 — 0.772
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 2-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Corinthians 66% against the market’s fair 61% — a +4.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.065–0.772 (most likely 2-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 24.8°C · rain 0 mm · wind 7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Corinthians 49% · Remo 7% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
| Outcome | Model prob | Fair odds (sharp, devigged) | Best price | Edge vs fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 66.0% | 1.63 | 1.57 | -3.6% |
| Draw | 22.2% | 4.29 | 4.00 | -6.8% |
| Remo | 11.8% | 6.54 | 7.20 | +10.2% |
Totals (2.5 goals line)
Over: 1.97 · Under: 1.79 — best captured prices.
Bookmaker board — who holds each price
| Book | Corinthians | Draw | Remo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet | 1.44 | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.51 | 3.95 | 7.00 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.00 | 7.20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.50 | 3.85 | 5.75 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50 | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.56 | 3.95 | 5.80 |
| LeoVegas | 1.50 | 3.95 | 5.90 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.50 | 3.85 | 5.75 |
| Casumo | 1.56 | 3.95 | 5.80 |
| 888sport | 1.53 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.75 | 6.00 |
| BoyleSports | 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.00 |
Captured at the engine's odds snapshot, timestamped — best price per column highlighted. Availability varies by region.
Sharp reference (raw): 1.55 / 4.08 / 6.23 — the line our fair odds devig from.
Odds movement
1X2 · Corinthians — best price vs devigged fair line
Best price — CorinthiansFair line (devig) — Corinthians
Step chart of real recorded observations — the engine refreshes its
odds snapshot several times a day and we log every change it sees. Nothing is interpolated or invented.
CorinthiansDWWLWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.08 / 1.17
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
Over 2.5 goals: 42% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 33%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | A v Cascavel | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-30 | A v Gremio | 3-1 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Atletico-MG | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Botafogo RJ | 1-3 | L |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Sao Paulo | 3-2 | W |
Remo
WLWDWL
Goals for/against (last 12): 1.25 / 1.5
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
Over 2.5 goals: 50% · Both teams scored: 58% · Clean sheets: 17%
| Date | Match | Score | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | H v Sao Paulo | 1-0 | W |
| 2026-05-24 | H v Athletico-PR | 1-2 | L |
| 2026-05-17 | A v Chapecoense-SC | 3-2 | W |
| 2026-05-10 | H v Palmeiras | 1-1 | D |
| 2026-05-02 | A v Botafogo RJ | 2-1 | W |
No prior meetings between these sides in the archive.
All from the engine's own results archive — the same data the model trains on. Form chips run newest first.
No intelligence signals recorded for this fixture. Critic passes run daily on qualifying fixtures; posted selections and grounded briefs appear here as they are produced.
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v Bahia
Frequently asked questions
When do Corinthians play Remo?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Corinthians v Remo?
The statistical model prices Corinthians at 66%, the draw at 22% and Remo at 12%, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
What are the fair odds for Corinthians v Remo?
Removing the bookmaker margin from captured prices puts the fair 1X2 line at 1.63 / 4.29 / 6.54 (sharp-anchored, devigged). A price above the fair line is a mispricing claim about the price, never a win claim.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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