Corinthians v Remo PREDICTION
BSA Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK · in 9d
1X2 · CorinthiansModel behind market recent
Market
1.57
price
63.7%
implied · incl. margin
Fair · devigged · sharp
1.63
fair price
61.4%
fair prob
Our model
1.52
model fair price
66.0%
model prob · D-C + ELO
market fair 61%model 66%
Model divergence +4.6 pts
Edge vs fair -3.6%
12 books priced
Model · 1X2
Corinthians
66%
Draw
22%
Remo
12%
market fair (devig · sharp): 61% / 23% / 15%
Expected goals (λ)
2.065 — 0.772
Dixon-Coles attack/defence · most likely 2-0
Engine confidence
unscored — outside the engine’s scan window
Model prices Corinthians 66% against the market’s fair 61% — a +4.6 pt divergence, from expected goals 2.065–0.772 (most likely 2-0). A divergence, not a certainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Kickoff weather: 24.8°C · rain 0 mm · wind 7 kph
Two-goal-lead probability (Monte-Carlo): Corinthians 49% · Remo 7% — relevant to 2-Up markets.
No grounded brief yet
Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends grounded calls only where team news can change a decision. This fixture didn’t clear that bar today; the numbers above stand on the model and market alone. We never fill this space with inferred detail.
Grounded team-news brief
No grounded brief for this fixture yet. Briefs are budgeted — the engine spends them where they can change a decision.
More Brazil Série A fixtures
Botafogo v SantosVitoria v Vasco da GamaBahia v ChapecoenseFluminense v Bragantino-SPMirassol v GrêmioAtletico Mineiro v Bahia
Frequently asked questions
When do Corinthians play Remo?
Kick-off is Thu 23 Jul, 23:30 UK time in the Brazil Série A.
What does the model expect for Corinthians v Remo?
The statistical model prices Corinthians at 66%, the draw at 22% and Remo at 12%, with 2-0 the single most likely scoreline. Probabilities carry uncertainty — no outcome is ever certain.
Data from the engine snapshot · updated just now · all prices are real captured bookmaker odds, timestamped.
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