Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities

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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.

20 fixtures of 20 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome is ever certain.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Expected total goals	Over / Under 2.5 (derived)	Market price O/U
Rot-Weiss Essen v FC Würzburger Kickers 3LG	Sat 12 Sept, 13:00	members	members	1.58 / 2.28 @ 2.5
TSV Havelse v SG Sonnenhof Großaspach 3LG	Sat 12 Sept, 13:00	members	members	—
1. FC Saarbrücken v FC Ingolstadt 04 3LG	Sat 12 Sept, 13:00	members	members	—
SC Verl v SV Meppen 3LG	Sat 12 Sept, 13:00	members	members	—
Fortuna Düsseldorf v MSV Duisburg 3LG	Sat 12 Sept, 13:00	members	members	1.70 / 2.10 @ 2.5
Alemannia Aachen v Jahn Regensburg 3LG	Sat 12 Sept, 15:30	members	members	—
VfB Stuttgart II v SC Preußen Münster 3LG	Sun 13 Sept, 12:30	members	members	—
Wehen Wiesbaden v Waldhof Mannheim 3LG	Sun 13 Sept, 15:30	members	members	—
TSG Hoffenheim II v SC Fortuna Köln 3LG	Sun 13 Sept, 18:30	members	members	—
MSV Duisburg v TSV Havelse 3LG	Tue 15 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
SG Sonnenhof Großaspach v SC Verl 3LG	Tue 15 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
FC Würzburger Kickers v Alemannia Aachen 3LG	Tue 15 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
SV Meppen v FC Viktoria Köln 1904 3LG	Tue 15 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
Jahn Regensburg v Fortuna Düsseldorf 3LG	Tue 15 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
Fortuna Köln v SV Wehen 3L	Wed 16 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
Hansa Rostock v Stuttgart II 3L	Wed 16 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
FC Ingolstadt 04 v Hoffenheim II 3L	Wed 16 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
Waldhof Mannheim v Rot-Weiß Essen 3L	Wed 16 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
Preußen Münster v FC Saarbrücken 3L	Wed 16 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—
Verl v Würzburger Kickers 3L	Fri 18 Sept, 18:00	members	members	—

Frequently asked questions

What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?

A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.

How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?

From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.