Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities

Most open games first. Research, not instructions.

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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.

4 fixtures of 4 considered

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.

How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome is ever certain.

Match	Kickoff (UK)	Expected total goals	Over / Under 2.5 (derived)	Market price O/U
Vasco da Gama v Independiente Santa Fe CS	Tue 15 Sept, 23:00	members	members	2.15 / 1.67 @ 2.5
Sao Paulo v Boca Juniors CS	Wed 16 Sept, 01:30	members	members	2.45 / 1.54 @ 2.5
Clube Atlético Mineiro v Santos CS	Wed 16 Sept, 23:00	members	members	2.25 / 1.64 @ 2.5
Montevideo City Torque v Club Cienciano CS	Fri 18 Sept, 01:30	members	members	—

Frequently asked questions

What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?

A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.

How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?

From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.

Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.