Over/Under 2.5 Goals — Model Probabilities
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This page selects every modelled fixture, ordered by the derived probability of three or more total goals, with the captured market price beside it where one is held. A fixture without published expected goals cannot be derived and is left out.
8 fixtures of 8 considered
All leagues
3. Liga - GermanyAllsvenskan - SwedenAustrian Football BundesligaBelgium First DivBrazil Série ABrazil Série BBundesliga - GermanyBundesliga 2 - GermanyChampionshipCopa LibertadoresCopa SudamericanaCoppa ItaliaDenmark SuperligaDutch EredivisieEFL CupEkstraklasa - PolandEliteserien - NorwayEPLFA CupFrauen-BundesligaJ LeagueK League 1La Liga - SpainLa Liga 2 - SpainLeague 1League 2League of IrelandLiga MXLigue 1 - FranceLigue 2 - FranceMLSPremiership - ScotlandPrimeira Liga - PortugalPrimera División - ArgentinaPrimera División - ChileSaudi Pro LeagueSerie A - ItalySerie B - ItalySuper League - ChinaSuper League - GreeceSuperettan - SwedenSwiss SuperleagueTurkey Super LeagueUEFA Europa LeagueVeikkausliiga - Finland
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time.
How these probabilities are derived. They come from the engine's
own bivariate Poisson score matrix with the Dixon-Coles low-score correction — the same matrix the match
pages show, computed once by the engine rather than re-derived here. Probabilities, not promises: no outcome
is ever certain.
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Expected total goals | Over / Under 2.5 (derived) | Market price O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Dundalk v St Patricks Athletic
|
Mon 14 Sept, 19:45 | members | members | — |
 Waterford FC v Derry City
|
Mon 14 Sept, 19:45 | members | members | — |
 Shelbourne Dublin v Drogheda United
|
Mon 14 Sept, 19:45 | members | members | — |
 Sligo Rovers v Galway United
|
Mon 14 Sept, 19:45 | members | members | — |
| Derry City v Galway United
|
Fri 18 Sept, 19:45 | members | members | — |
| Dundalk v Shelbourne
|
Fri 18 Sept, 19:45 | members | members | — |
 Bohemians v Drogheda United
|
Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 | members | members | — |
 Shamrock Rovers v Waterford
|
Fri 18 Sept, 20:00 | members | members | — |
LOI
PDFrequently asked questions
What does over/under 2.5 goals mean?
A market on the total goals in the match: over 2.5 wins with three or more goals, under 2.5 with two or fewer. The probabilities here are derived from the model’s total expected goals.
How are the over 2.5 probabilities calculated?
From the engine’s full score matrix: the probabilities of every 0, 1 and 2-goal scoreline are added and over 2.5 is one minus that total. It is the same matrix the match pages show, computed once by the engine, so the two never disagree.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 11 September at 08:02 UK time. · engine slate assembled 12 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.