League One Predictions — Model Probabilities
Research, not instructions — the model states a probability, never a selection.
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This page selects every fixture on the current snapshot that carries a full model view — win, draw and win probabilities plus the most likely scoreline. A fixture the engine has not yet scored is left out rather than shown with an assumed number.
0 fixtures of 13 considered
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Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 19 September at 08:06 UK time.
| Match | Kickoff (UK) | Model 1X2 | Most likely score |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bradford v Barnsley
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Cambridge United v AFC Wimbledon
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Doncaster v Oxford United
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Huddersfield v Luton
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Leicester v Wigan
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Mansfield Town v Leyton Orient
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Milton Keynes Dons v Bromley
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Notts County v Blackpool
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Plymouth v Burton Albion
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Stevenage v Sheffield Wednesday
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Stockport County v Peterborough
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
 Wycombe v Reading
|
Sat 26 Sept, 15:00 | — | — |
| Oxford United v Reading
|
Wed 4 Nov, 19:45 | — | — |
Read the full picture. Every row links to the fixture's prediction
view: expected goals, fair odds, price movement and the grounded team-news brief. The
track record grades every published call in the open.
Frequently asked questions
How are these league one predictions made?
A Dixon-Coles + ELO statistical model, trained continuously on a growing results archive, produces expected goals per team and win/draw/win probabilities for every fixture. The model is then priced against the real odds market — the market always owns the final number.
Are these betting tips?
No — they are model probabilities published as research. Probabilities carry uncertainty and no outcome is certain; judge the process on the public track record, which grades every published call against the closing line.
How do I know the model is any good?
The track record page publishes calibration (predicted vs observed frequencies), closing-line value on every call, and a held-out walk-forward backtest — process metrics first, never performance claims.
Prices captured in the scheduled market snapshot, 19 September at 08:06 UK time. · engine slate assembled 20 h ago · this page fetched the feed just now. Every price shown is a real captured bookmaker price with its own capture time.